Confirmed previous forecast
-1.305143
Relative Brier Score
1493
Forecasts
65
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 7 | 28 | 330 | 300 | 1493 |
| Comments | 2 | 6 | 83 | 75 | 99 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 12 | 26 | 22 | 93 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 65 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Emerging Technology,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Artificial Intelligence,
Microelectronic Technologies
Most Active Topics:
Open RAN,
Decoding Disinformation,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Future Bowl
New Prediction
Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
U.S. Entity
65%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing further.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 2, 2025 to Jun 2, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 2, 2025 to Jun 2, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-6%)
Yes
94%
(+6%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Only a month left.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files