Updating forecast as Sept 30 nears.
1.052479
Relative Brier Score
114
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 114 | 114 | 114 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 85 | 85 | 85 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Yes
100%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Sudden changes in geopolitics.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+4%)
Less than or equal to 1
0%
(-4%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Current weather modeling is showing that there will be an additional 7-10 days of "quiet." That brings us to around September 17-20 and it is very unlikely that we'll see additional storms that are Category 3 or above that make landfall. Although it's possible storm formation picks up in the latter half of the month, it's been a quiet season overall so I don't expect a series of major storms to occur.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
According to weatherbug, September usually has four named hurricanes on average, with both 2023 and 2024 having six. There are still 20 days until question resolution so there's room for a few more - but given the current season, this is unlikely to result in a major hurricane that makes landfall.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Aug 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 500
10%
(0%)
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
80%
(+30%)
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
10%
(-30%)
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1251
Why do you think you're right?
Updating forecast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Lag in data reporting may alter the final count.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 600
0%
(-15%)
Between 600 and 629, inclusive
79%
(+9%)
Between 630 and 659, inclusive
21%
(+6%)
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 690
Why do you think you're right?
Updating forecast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Potential spikes in violence.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
96%
(+16%)
Less than or equal to 1
4%
(-16%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Updating forecast to account for the remaining month left.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
While there is a lull in hurricanes right now, some news reports indicate that there may be more activity in the second week of September. However, there would only be two weeks left in the question and it would be unlikely for additional major hurricanes to make landfall in that time period.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 250
0%
(-3%)
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
10%
(-12%)
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
90%
(+15%)
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 550
Why do you think you're right?
Updating forecast based on incidents tracked this month.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Rate could decrease at the end of the month, but I think it'll likely be in the 450-549 bin.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 600
15%
(-15%)
Between 600 and 629, inclusive
70%
(0%)
Between 630 and 659, inclusive
15%
(+15%)
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 690
Why do you think you're right?
Updating forecast to account for increase in violence.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The number of events could be higher (in the 660 and upwards bins); the new travel warning may indicate increased risk of violence.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Updating forecast based on recent numbers.
Why might you be wrong?