RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

You quit this question on May 7, 2025 07:57PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
43 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(19 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 06, 2025 10:07AM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	100%	4%	+96%	-6%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 01:37PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
U.S. Entity	99%	79%	+20%	+1%
Non-U.S. Entity	75%	55%	+20%	-1%

Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 01:50PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	80%	82%	-2%	+7%
No	20%	18%	+2%	-7%

Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(19 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 01:50PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 01:51PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
19	0%	0%	+0%	0%
18	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
17	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
16 or fewer	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 01:51PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
No	98%	97%	+1%	+0%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 01:52PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $1 billion	83%	85%	-2%	+1%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion	15%	11%	+4%	-1%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 01:52PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	39%	28%	+11%	+0%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million	36%	45%	-9%	+0%
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million	19%	22%	-3%	+0%
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million	5%	5%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to $800 million	1%	1%	+0%	0%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 03:08PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	3%	+1%	+0%
No	96%	97%	-1%	+0%

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Forecast Count:
37 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(19 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 03:08PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	10%	-4%	-1%
No	94%	90%	+4%	+1%

PeterStamp

About: