RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2026 07:24PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	11%	16%	-5%	+0%
No	89%	84%	+5%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2026 07:24PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	1%	5%	-4%	+0%
Armenia	2%	2%	+0%	0%
Georgia	3%	3%	+0%	+0%
Kazakhstan	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2026 07:25PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	20%	-13%	+0%
No	93%	80%	+13%	+0%

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2026 07:25PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
U.S. Entity	75%	86%	-11%	+0%
Non-U.S. Entity	33%	56%	-23%	+0%

Will Western Asia and North African intra-regional exports equal or exceed 24% of total exports in 2025 or 2026, according to UNCTAD data?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2026 07:45PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	20%	+0%	+0%
No	80%	80%	+0%	+0%

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2026 08:00PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	3%	-2%	-1%
No	99%	97%	+2%	+1%

Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2026 08:01PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	45%	-44%	+0%
No	99%	55%	+44%	+0%

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(10 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2026 08:02PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
19	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
18	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
17	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
16 or fewer	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2026 08:20PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	33%	61%	-28%	-5%
No	67%	39%	+28%	+5%

Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2026 08:31PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Iván Cepeda	40%	36%	+4%	+0%
Sergio Fajardo	15%	9%	+6%	-3%
Abelardo de la Espriella	40%	46%	-6%	+2%
Other	5%	9%	-4%	+1%

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