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Forecasted Questions

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 24, 2025 08:39PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
19	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
18	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
17	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
16 or fewer	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 07:39PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	65%	67%	-2%	-1%
30 days	10%	6%	+4%	+0%
31-60 days	5%	6%	-1%	+0%
61-90 days	5%	5%	+0%	+0%
91 days or more	15%	16%	-1%	+0%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 07:40PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	1%	4%	-3%	+0%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 07:44PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	10%	-6%	-1%
No	96%	90%	+6%	+1%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 07:44PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	40%	28%	+12%	+1%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million	45%	45%	+0%	+1%
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million	15%	22%	-7%	-2%
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million	0%	5%	-5%	-1%
More than or equal to $800 million	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 07:45PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	30%	43%	-13%	+0%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million	40%	35%	+5%	+0%
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million	25%	15%	+10%	+0%
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million	5%	5%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to $650 million	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 07:45PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $1 billion	95%	84%	+11%	+2%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion	5%	11%	-6%	-1%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion	0%	3%	-3%	-1%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 07:45PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 4,499	0%	6%	-6%	-3%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive	10%	12%	-2%	+0%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive	45%	75%	-30%	+1%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive	40%	7%	+33%	+2%
More than or equal to 6,000	5%	1%	+4%	+0%

Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 07:45PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	46%	-45%	-1%
No	99%	54%	+45%	+1%

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 07:45PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	47%	-46%	+0%
No	99%	53%	+46%	+0%