Forecasted Questions
Will the United Nations Security Council adopt a resolution related to the conflict in Sudan by 1 May 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
May 02, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
May 02, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2026 08:51PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Jan 12, 2026 08:51PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 58% | +12% | -13% |
| No | 30% | 42% | -12% | +13% |
Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2026 08:57PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Jan 12, 2026 08:57PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) take control of Bamako, Mali by 1 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 02, 2026 03:59AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Jun 02, 2026 03:59AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 19, 2026 08:39PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Jan 19, 2026 08:39PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 6% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 95% | 94% | +1% | +1% |
Will Hezbollah and its March 8 coalition allies win a majority of seats in the 2026 Lebanese Parliamentary elections?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 19, 2026 09:01PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Jan 19, 2026 09:01PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 30% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 70% | 70% | +0% | +0% |
Will an AI-enabled cyber-attack, attributed to a state actor, cause significant disruption to critical national infrastructure in any G20 country before 1 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 19, 2026 09:47PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Jan 19, 2026 09:47PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 22% | -2% | -2% |
| No | 80% | 78% | +2% | +2% |