Forecasted Questions
Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 07:45PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 07:45PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 64% | -63% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 36% | +63% | +0% |
What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 07:47PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 07:47PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $21.0 billion | 45% | 21% | +24% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion | 50% | 43% | +7% | +1% |
| More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion | 4% | 14% | -10% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion | 1% | 9% | -8% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $25.0 billion | 0% | 13% | -13% | +0% |
Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 07:47PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 07:47PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 36% | -21% | +0% |
| No | 85% | 64% | +21% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 07:48PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 07:48PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 07:48PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 07:48PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 07:48PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 07:48PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 99% | -1% | +0% |