Russia will likely stage cyberattacks but kinetic cyber attacks are very rare. It is debatable whether or not they have even occurred in Ukraine, where Russia increasingly uses conventional kinetic means to strike what were formerly seen as cyber targets such as the power grid.
0.292127
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Russia-Europe,
Russian Disinformation,
Cybersecurity
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Star Commenter - May 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 24, 2025 07:42PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
May 24, 2025 to Nov 24, 2026
95%
No
May 24, 2025 to Nov 24, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Kinetic cyber attacks could become more common.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
European publics are unwilling to risk war with Russian for Ukraine.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
European attitudes could shift.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Why do you think you're right?
HIMARS remains a valuable system for Ukrainian forces and a key means for Ukrainian forces to conduct deep strike. The U.S. is unlikely to provide more HIMARS given limited stockpiles, so Europe will likely step up to fill the void. However, European forces have limited numbers of HIMARS-compatible systems, making their provision possible but not guaranteed.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Ukraine could identify new means of deep strike making HIMARS less important or America could provide systems negating the need for Europeans to do so.
Files
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Estonia
0%
Latvia
0%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
A Russian invasion of the Baltic states would result in a major, likely nuclear, war as a result of U.S. security guarantees.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
European collective security could collapse as the result of a U.S. withdrawal from NATO.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Germans will likely continue to see Ukrainian resistance to Russia as a major source of risk that undermines their ability to trade with Russia.
Why might you be wrong?
Battlefield events could have a major effect on public opinion.