RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026	Jan 1, 2026	2%	+3%	+0%
No	95%	Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026	Jan 1, 2026	98%	-3%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	11%	3%	+9%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	75%	96%	-21%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	14%	2%	+12%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	3%	-2%	+0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026	Jan 1, 2026	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026	Jan 1, 2026	99%	+0%	+0%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Not before 2026	98%	98%	+0%	+0%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	10%	4%	+6%	+0%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	1%	+9%	+0%
No	90%	99%	-9%	+0%

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	20%	+50%	-6%
No	30%	80%	-50%	+6%

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
More than €0 but less than €10 billion	18%	1%	+17%	+0%
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion	63%	5%	+58%	+0%
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion	15%	51%	-36%	+0%
€30 billion or more	3%	43%	-40%	+0%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	1%	+2%	+0%
No	97%	99%	-2%	+0%

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