RAND Forecasting Initiative

Forecasted Questions

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:11AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	1%	+2%	-3%
No	97%	99%	-2%	+3%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:12AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	15%	-5%	+0%
No	90%	85%	+5%	+0%

Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:23AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	63%	-13%	-2%
No	50%	37%	+13%	+2%

Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:24AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	89%	-19%	+21%
No	30%	11%	+19%	-21%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2025 07:00PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	23%	33%	-10%	+2%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million	66%	45%	+21%	+1%
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million	7%	17%	-10%	-1%
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million	3%	4%	-1%	-1%
More than or equal to $800 million	1%	1%	+0%	-1%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2025 07:00PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	52%	40%	+12%	-4%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million	30%	38%	-8%	+3%
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million	11%	15%	-4%	+1%
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million	6%	5%	+1%	+1%
More than or equal to $650 million	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2025 07:00PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $1 billion	84%	93%	-9%	+2%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion	9%	6%	+3%	-2%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion	4%	1%	+3%	+0%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion	3%	0%	+3%	+0%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2025 07:00PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 4,499	100%	8%	+92%	+4%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive	0%	11%	-11%	-1%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive	0%	73%	-73%	-3%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive	0%	6%	-6%	+0%
More than or equal to 6,000	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2025 07:00PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	49%	+1%	-3%
No	50%	51%	-1%	+3%

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2025 07:00PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	36%	+14%	-2%
No	50%	64%	-14%	+2%