RAND Forecasting Initiative

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 62%	2%	0%	+2%	0%
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%	7%	0%	+7%	0%
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%	39%	4%	+35%	-1%
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%	41%	96%	-55%	+1%
More than or equal to 74%	11%	0%	+11%	0%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	10%	+40%	-2%
No	50%	90%	-40%	+2%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	64%	67%	-3%	-1%
30 days	3%	6%	-3%	+0%
31-60 days	22%	6%	+16%	+0%
61-90 days	6%	5%	+1%	+0%
91 days or more	5%	16%	-11%	+0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	7%	+1%	+0%
No	92%	93%	-1%	+0%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	2%	+1%	+0%
No	97%	98%	-1%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2027	Mar 1, 2026	6%	+0%	+0%
No	94%	Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2027	Mar 1, 2026	94%	+0%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	3%	+4%	+0%
No	93%	97%	-4%	+0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	17%	+13%	+0%
No	70%	83%	-13%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:36AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026	Jan 1, 2026	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026	Jan 1, 2026	99%	+0%	+0%

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