RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

You quit this question on Jul 2, 2025 01:35PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 02, 2025 05:40PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	90%	19%	+71%	-55%
No	10%	81%	-71%	+55%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 20, 2025 01:30PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 20, 2025 01:30PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	2%	6%	-4%	+0%
Armenia	4%	2%	+2%	+0%
Georgia	4%	3%	+1%	-1%
Kazakhstan	4%	1%	+3%	+0%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2025 03:37PM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	60%	67%	-7%	+1%
30 days	10%	6%	+4%	+0%
31-60 days	9%	6%	+3%	-1%
61-90 days	10%	5%	+5%	+0%
91 days or more	11%	17%	-6%	-1%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2025 03:37PM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	7%	-2%	+0%
No	95%	93%	+2%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 03, 2025 01:05PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Nov 3, 2025 to May 3, 2027	Feb 3, 2026	4%	+6%	+0%
No	90%	Nov 3, 2025 to May 3, 2027	Feb 3, 2026	96%	-6%	+0%

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2025 11:09PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
19	0%	0%	0%	0%
18	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
17	0%	1%	-1%	-1%
16 or fewer	100%	98%	+2%	+0%

What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2025 08:06PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $21.0 billion	15%	16%	-1%	+1%
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion	35%	34%	+1%	-2%
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion	32%	13%	+20%	-1%
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion	15%	13%	+2%	+1%
More than or equal to $25.0 billion	3%	25%	-22%	+1%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2025 07:21PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 10, 2025 to May 10, 2026	Dec 10, 2025	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 10, 2025 to May 10, 2026	Dec 10, 2025	98%	+1%	+0%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2025 07:21PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	2%	6%	-4%	+0%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

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