Forecasted Questions
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 07, 2026 06:04PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Jan 07, 2026 06:04PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 7% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 93% | +2% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 08, 2026 08:13PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Jan 08, 2026 08:13PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 08, 2026 08:13PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Jan 08, 2026 08:13PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 2% | 5% | -3% | +0% |
| Armenia | 4% | 2% | +2% | +0% |
| Georgia | 4% | 3% | +1% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 4% | 1% | +3% | +0% |
Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 16, 2026 10:56PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Jan 16, 2026 10:56PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(10 days from now)
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(10 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 20, 2026 01:29PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Jan 20, 2026 01:29PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 16 or fewer | 100% | 100% | +0% | 0% |