Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2025 07:34PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Nov 19, 2025 07:34PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 2% | 6% | -4% | +0% |
| Armenia | 4% | 2% | +2% | +0% |
| Georgia | 4% | 3% | +1% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 4% | 1% | +3% | +0% |
Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2025 11:11PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Nov 19, 2025 11:11PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 5% | -1% | -3% |
| No | 96% | 95% | +1% | +3% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 03:48PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 03:48PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 60% | 67% | -7% | -1% |
| 30 days | 10% | 6% | +4% | +0% |
| 31-60 days | 9% | 6% | +3% | +0% |
| 61-90 days | 10% | 5% | +5% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 11% | 16% | -5% | +0% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 03:48PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 03:48PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 7% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 93% | +2% | +0% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 03, 2025 01:50PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 03, 2025 01:50PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2027 | Mar 3, 2026 | 6% | +4% | +0% |
| No | 90% | Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2027 | Mar 3, 2026 | 94% | -4% | +0% |