RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

You quit this question on Jul 2, 2025 01:35PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 02, 2025 05:40PM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	90%	10%	+80%	-63%
No	10%	90%	-80%	+63%

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2025 11:09PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
19	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
18	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
17	0%	1%	-1%	-1%
16 or fewer	100%	99%	+1%	+1%

What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2025 08:06PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $21.0 billion	15%	21%	-6%	+6%
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion	35%	43%	-8%	+7%
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion	32%	14%	+18%	+1%
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion	15%	9%	+6%	-3%
More than or equal to $25.0 billion	3%	13%	-10%	-11%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2025 07:21PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 10, 2025 to May 10, 2026	Dec 10, 2025	1%	+0%	-1%
No	99%	Nov 10, 2025 to May 10, 2026	Dec 10, 2025	99%	+0%	+1%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2025 07:21PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	2%	4%	-2%	-2%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2025 07:22PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 10, 2025 to May 10, 2026	Dec 10, 2025	1%	-1%	-1%
No	100%	Nov 10, 2025 to May 10, 2026	Dec 10, 2025	99%	+1%	+1%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2025 07:22PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
No	100%	98%	+2%	+0%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2025 07:23PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Not before 2026	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 11:40PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	3%	+1%	-5%
No	96%	97%	-1%	+5%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2025 07:34PM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	3%	-2%	+0%

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