Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 6 | 41 | 477 | 11 | 2280 |
| Comments | 2 | 27 | 48 | 4 | 606 |
| Questions Forecasted | 6 | 39 | 75 | 11 | 252 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 3 | 48 | 2 | 293 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
30%
(0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
40%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
30%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 80
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
2%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Feb 14, 2025
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Jan 14, 2025 to Jul 14, 2025
99%
(+1%)
No
Jan 14, 2025 to Jul 14, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing due to Trump coming to the White House
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Same rationale
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Apr 12, 2025
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
(+25%)
Yes
Jan 12, 2025 to Jul 12, 2025
0%
(-25%)
No
Jan 12, 2025 to Jul 12, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Mazimizing.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
6%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
6%
(+4%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
25%
(+5%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
51%
(-4%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
18%
(-5%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting slightly as @PeterStamp commented here: https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/153666
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Not a real change in rationale, I would still infer that the election would bring more cases of misinformation.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 6, 2025 to Jul 6, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Jan 6, 2025 to Jul 6, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+1%)
Yes
0%
(-1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Maximizing
Files
Why might you be wrong?
No change
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
4%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files