96th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

LinkedIn
Show more
View All Badges »
2025 Season Stats

0.105715

Relative Brier Score

235

Forecasts

5

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 3 13 310 235 2504
Comments 0 2 86 60 662
Questions Forecasted 3 13 56 37 259
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 12 5 296
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
ansantillan made their 19th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Moldova
1% (0%)
Armenia
2% (0%)
Georgia
1% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Show more
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
ansantillan made their 13th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2026
99% (0%)
No
Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Show more
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Show more
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
ansantillan made their 16th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Nov 3, 2025 to May 3, 2026
99% (0%)
No
Nov 3, 2025 to May 3, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
ansantillan made their 12th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Nov 3, 2025 to May 3, 2026
99% (0%)
No
Nov 3, 2025 to May 3, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Two months remaining

Files
Why might you be wrong?

N/A

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel