AAPL likely to continue dropping, unclear whether they'll drop further than NVDA in terms of percentage; MSFT has been holding strong and less affected by intrel & supply chain factors comparatively, I expect it to stay above NVDA unless something really strange with semiconductor supply chain/policy happens.
0.004014
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
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Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Plausible that NVDA can benefit from a strong surge if a forementioned factor appears
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This forecast expired on May 8, 2025 03:08AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Apr 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2025
99%
No
Apr 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Unlikely given current circumstances
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Why might you be wrong?
If an unconsidered factor significantly changes RR ratio or EV of armed conflict
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Why do you think you're right?
See comment on prev forecast
Why might you be wrong?
See comment on prev forecast