170th
Accuracy Rank

dawnpatrol

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Forecasted Questions

Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2025 03:52PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 35% 0%
No 65% 100%

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2025 05:36PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
19 0% 0%
18 0% 1%
17 0% 1%
16 or fewer 100% 99%

Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2025 05:44PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 100% 77%
No 0% 23%

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2025 05:50PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 5%
No 100% 95%
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