diegopc45

I think this outcome is likely because many European NATO members are increasing defense spending after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing pressure to modernize their militaries. Several countries are already looking outside Europe for advanced systems especially from the U.S., South Korea, and Israel because European industry cannot meet all demand quickly. With rising security concerns and higher budgets, it is reasonable to expect that at least two European NATO states will sign large new procurement contracts over €1 billion with non-European suppliers before July 2026.

European defense spending is growing fast because of the war in Ukraine, and many European NATO members are already buying large amounts of military equipment from non-European suppliers like the United States and South Korea. Several countries, such as Poland, Romania, Germany, and Finland, have active modernization plans that often involve contracts worth more than €1 billion. Since only two new contracts over €1 billion are needed before July 2026, and demand for non-European weapons is very high, it is likely that this requirement will be met.

Both the U.S. and the UK are working on AI security, but their current actions are limited to voluntary guidelines and early policy discussions. Neither country has proposed or advanced a law that directly ties tax incentives to independent third-party audits of AI models, which is a very specific requirement. Because moving from voluntary frameworks to formal legislation usually takes many years, it is unlikely that such a targeted law will be passed before 2029.