eumaies

There is no sign that this could occur in the next week; odds seem less than .5%

there's simply no time left for a historic spike to register in the last week

Closer to 0 than 1 at this point

Not truly 0% but closer to 0% than 1% at this point

While from a traditional view of Russia's place in the world triggering any kind of armed conflict (labelled an invasion in this question but the definition is pretty broad, making it easier to hit) seems not in their best interest, recent events suggest Russia (and the Baltic states themselves, who are actively preparing for possible conflict) may not see it that way.  They may view NATO's likely actions as consistently as unconfrontational as possible, and possible upside for russia could include triggering internal division within NATO.  It's also uncertain where the U.S. will stand over the long term with regard to its historical European allies.  Russia may view the war with Ukraine as something that is now inescapable for its economy and political stability, or it may perceive that it can get superior terms by heightening NATO countries' concerns over their own borders in any negotiation rather than concern over what Ukraine gets in a peace deal.  So there may be diplomatic scenarios in which Russia views the threat of active conflict in the baltic states as a negotiating chip with the west.  Separately, the increasing isolation of Kaliningrad may be of concern to Putin and he may view it unlikely that NATO will really invade but be seeking political leverage to negotiate a better final outcome for that region.

Russia for reasons that are not entirely apparent is repeatedly violating nato countries' air space; it would not take much more of a step to use air power to strike a military target if russia has a specific intent to stoke conflict in this way.

Well, i blew it on this one but the end result now seems clear, barring a massive sudden spike.