Confirmed previous forecast
0.16058
Relative Brier Score
224
Forecasts
106
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 6 | 20 | 234 | 224 | 897 |
| Comments | 3 | 15 | 208 | 199 | 533 |
| Questions Forecasted | 6 | 10 | 27 | 27 | 108 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 5 | 110 | 106 | 453 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Moldova
5%
(0%)
Armenia
3%
(0%)
Georgia
3%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Estonia
8%
(0%)
Latvia
6%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Dropping due to passage of time and no changes to the indicators I'm tracking
Files
Why might you be wrong?
See my previous past counter-rationales
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-5%)
Yes
90%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Lowering due to passage of time, though I still anticipate a plausible risk that Russia or China would decide to neutralize a US or Allied satellite if Russia loses ground in Ukraine or China decides to invade Taiwan before 2027.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin and Xi are pragmatic enough not to instigate armed conflict with the US / NATO in 2026
Files
New Comment
I’ve come across reporting on Danish government confirmation that a Russian-government-supported cyber-attack took place in “late 2024” against the Tureby Alkestrup Waterworks in Køge, 35 kms south of Copenhagen. I assume waterworks don't qualify as energy or transportation infrastructure; if they did I believe this question would have to be resolved "yes".
The cyber-attack by Z-Pentest (funded, financed and directed by Russia's military intelligence agency GRU) took place in “altered water pressure and caused at least three pipes to burst, Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service said…. Around 50 households were without water for seven hours while 450 homes lost supply for one hour.” According to the question's resolution criteria, "Examples of “kinetic” effects include, but are not limited to, damage to equipment, shutdowns or other impacts to power grids, fires, human injury or death, and other physical destruction as a direct result of the cyber attack."
“Copenhagen summoned Russia's ambassador in response to the findings. Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen called the attacks "completely unacceptable"https://sg.news.yahoo.com/denmark-blames-russia-cyberattacks-water-164829340.html
https://www.barrons.com/news/denmark-blames-cyberattacks-on-groups-tied-to-russian-state-f6be12a3
I believe the date of the attack came after this question period started on October 4, 2024. Several credible sources put the Tureby Alkestrup Waterworks hack “shortly before Christmas” in December 2024, but none of the official or major-outlet write-ups give a precise calendar date.
What I’ve been able to pin down:
• Danish water-sector publications and the utility’s own account say the attack hit “kort før jul” (shortly before Christmas) in December 2024, spiking pump pressure, bursting pipes, and cutting water (≈50 homes for ~7 hours; ~450 homes for ~1 hour). https://danskevv.dk/nyheder/tureby-alkestrup-deler-erfaringer-paa-ministerbesoeg/
• Danish Defence Intelligence Service (FE/DDIS) attribution—publicly released Dec. 18–19, 2025—names Z-Pentest as the pro-Russian group behind the late-2024 waterworks attack; reports again describe it as occurring in December 2024 without a specific day.
I consider this a convincing reminder that Russian cyber-attacks against NATO member state critical infrastructure continues to occur frequently, and in several cases has caused kinetic damage....but not yet against the two categories of critical infrastructure that would resolve this question. Logic and common sense suggest its just a matter of time before we similar kinetic damage against energy and transportation infrastructure.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Given Trump's evolution towards a foreign policy based on personal transactional relationships with other heads of state and a tilt towards regional "spheres of influence", I can imagine strongly Trump opposing any Middle East security agreements that do not include Israel and/or Saudi Arabia, to the point of pressuring MENA states (with Saudi and Israeli support) not to pursue such an agreement.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
One or more MENA states that seek to exercise sovereign foreign and security policy independently of Saudi Arabia-- for example Jordan, the UAE, and Bahrain -- may decide to make a demonstration of their independence by agreeing on a mutual defense agreement, even if it is largely symbolic.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(+3%)
Moldova
5%
(+2%)
Armenia
3%
(0%)
Georgia
3%
(+2%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
I'm raising my forecast slightly given the Trump Administration's decision to attack Venezuela without Congressional support or a legally defensible reason related to self-defense.
Russia and China may interpret this (as I do) as evidence that Trump increasingly sees the world in terms of "spheres of influence", where the US exercises domination in the Western Hemisphere, China does the same in its sphere (which includes Taiwan and SE Asia), and Russia may also do so with regard to former USSR states. I will carefully watch China's and Russia's reaction to US action against Maduro; if their reactions are muted, it may be a signal that there is implicit agreement among the three authoritarian leaders not to interfere in each other's spheres of influence. In that case, the risks of Russian action against former Soviet states in the Caucasus and Central Asia will grow significantly.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This perhaps gives too much credit to trump for having a coherent approach to geopolitics, when in reality his foreign policy is little more than a series of impulsive, short-term power demonstrations and personal aggrandizement.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The most plausible “yes” path is the Egypt–Jordan–Iraq trilateral maturing into a signed security MOU (intel sharing / joint ops language), but each capital is preoccupied with domestic constraints and Gaza-Lebanon spillovers, which depress appetite for new formal security obligations. I just dont see this happening in the next 5 months.
Why might you be wrong?
A sudden Iran-linked shock (eg a significant US or Israeli attack against Iranian govt targets, or protests leading to violent civil war in Iran, or a border escalation involving Iran) could catalyze an Arab security compact framed as counter-threat coordination, which could include Egypt-Jordan-Iraq-Morocco... but it's hard to imagine Saudi Arabia being left out.