geoffodlum

Geoff Odlum

About:

Global affairs consultant, former U.S. Foreign Service Officer. Served as a diplomat in London, Algiers, Istanbul, Vienna, Baghdad, Kabul, and WashDC. Worked on nuclear nonproliferation; counter-terrorism; Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan; European security; and emergint tech policy. Started Odlum Global Strategies consulting in 2018; Advisor with FedTech ; Board of Directors with Coalescion. Pro Forecaster since 2021.

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Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Mar 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 4, 2025 and Mar 4, 2025)	-0.003946
Mar 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2025 and Mar 2, 2025)	0.223729
Feb 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 28, 2025 and Feb 28, 2025)	-0.000032
Feb 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 4, 2025 and Feb 4, 2025)	0.009597
Feb 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2025 and Feb 2, 2025)	0.008394
Jan 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 28, 2024 and Jan 28, 2025)	0.0
Jan 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 4, 2024 and Jan 4, 2025)	0.0229
Jan 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 2, 2024 and Jan 2, 2025)	0.001839
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?	0.155758
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?	-0.000078
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?	0.002312
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?	0.000315
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC	By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?	0.005494
Dec 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 28, 2024 and Dec 28, 2024)	0.0
Dec 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 4, 2024 and Dec 4, 2024)	-0.008653
Dec 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 2, 2024 and Dec 2, 2024)	0.00196
Dec 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC	Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?	0.056243
Nov 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2024 and Nov 28, 2024)	0.0
Nov 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2024 and Nov 6, 2024)	0.001155
Nov 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 2, 2024 and Nov 2, 2024)	0.0002

Date Ended

Question

Relative Brier Score

Mar 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 4, 2025 and Mar 4, 2025)

-0.003946

Mar 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2025 and Mar 2, 2025)

0.223729

Feb 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 28, 2025 and Feb 28, 2025)

-0.000032