150th
Accuracy Rank

geoffodlum

Geoff Odlum
About:

Global affairs consultant, former U.S. Foreign Service Officer. Served as a diplomat in London, Algiers, Istanbul, Vienna, Baghdad, Kabul, and WashDC. Worked on nuclear nonproliferation; counter-terrorism; Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan; European security; and emergint tech policy. Started Odlum Global Strategies consulting in 2018; Advisor with FedTech ; Board of Directors with Coalescion. Pro Forecaster since 2021.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025? -0.049874
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025? -0.00069
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025? -0.052358
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) 0.0032
Jul 24, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registered cars in the EU exceed 20% by the second quarter of 2025? 0.000954
Jul 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) -0.004338
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? 0.00183
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025? 0.039651
Jun 25, 2025 02:00AM UTC Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic mayoral primary for New York City on 24 June 2025 in five rounds or fewer? -0.02624
Jun 21, 2025 11:50PM UTC Will the United States launch a kinetic strike against Iran before 1 August 2025? 0.0046
Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM UTC Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025) 0.183168
Jun 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 4, 2025 and Jun 4, 2025) -0.0018
Jun 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 2, 2025 and Jun 2, 2025) -0.000181
May 31, 2025 05:00PM UTC On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? 0.009339
May 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 28, 2025 and May 28, 2025) -0.00022
May 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2025 and May 2, 2025) -0.0002
Apr 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 28, 2025 and Apr 28, 2025) -0.000442
Apr 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 4, 2025 and Apr 4, 2025) -0.005587
Apr 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 2, 2025 and Apr 2, 2025) 0.005787
Mar 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 28, 2025 and Mar 28, 2025) -0.000186
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