geoffodlum

Geoff Odlum

About:

Global affairs consultant, former U.S. Foreign Service Officer. Served as a diplomat in London, Algiers, Istanbul, Vienna, Baghdad, Kabul, and WashDC. Worked on nuclear nonproliferation; counter-terrorism; Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan; European security; and emergint tech policy. Started Odlum Global Strategies consulting in 2018; Advisor with FedTech ; Board of Directors with Coalescion. Pro Forecaster since 2021.

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Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	0.034768
Apr 24, 2024 01:10AM UTC	Will the U.S. Congress pass a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024?	0.005338
Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM UTC	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024)	0.105202
Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024)	-0.043471
Apr 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 6, 2024 and Apr 6, 2024)	-0.000058
Apr 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 2, 2024 and Apr 2, 2024)	0.0
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024)	0.0
Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024)	0.0
Mar 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 6, 2024 and Mar 6, 2024)	-0.001997
Mar 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2024 and Mar 2, 2024)	0.0
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?	-0.000137
Feb 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 20, 2024 and Feb 20, 2024)	0.0
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM UTC	Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?	0.169355
Feb 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 6, 2024 and Feb 6, 2024)	-0.001284
Feb 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2024 and Feb 2, 2024)	0.0
Jan 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 20, 2023 and Jan 20, 2024)	0.0
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	0.026282
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?	0.050246
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?	0.000023
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?	-0.046608

Date Ended

Question

Relative Brier Score

May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

0.034768

Apr 24, 2024 01:10AM UTC

Will the U.S. Congress pass a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024?

0.005338

Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM UTC

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024)

0.105202