Taking 2023-2024 as the baseline, we can consider two factors: 1.Because 2025 is election year, Russia is predicted to promote false information; 2.Pro-Kremlin "Doppelganger" operations are active. Through the above analysis, we predict that the number of disinformation case will increase in 2024-2025.
-0.078005
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Russian Disinformation
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 59
0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
100%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
0%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Reasons for prediction failure:
1.Due to changes in the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia’s priority in information warfare against German is reduced.
2.The technology of the regulatory platform strengthen their ban on Pro-Russian false content, the amount of disinformation in German may be lower than.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 30 days
0%
30 days
0%
31-60 days
100%
61-90 days
0%
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
1. Russia remains cautious about a U.S.-led peace proposal, while internal divisions persist within Ukraine regarding the terms of a ceasefire. Kyiv insists on restoring its internationally recognized borders, whereas Russia demands recognition of the territories it currently controls.
2. The battlefield remains in a stalemate, with both sides engaged in a war of attrition, which is unfavorable for Ukraine.
3. The newly elected U.S. president proposes the Black Sea Agreement in an effort to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russia demands U.S. assistance in restoring access to global markets for its agricultural products and fertilizers, as well as reconnecting the Russian Agricultural Bank to the SWIFT international payment system. However, neither side shows any signs of compromise.
4. Fifteen countries have proposed deploying a peacekeeping force, but only if a formal peace agreement is reached.
Based on the above analysis, I believe that the ceasefire will not last long because the key issues between Russia and Ukraine have not been resolved and the supervision mechanism is missing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_negotiations_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The ceasefire period forecasting is based on short-term battlefield situation and diplomatic breakthrough, but the territorial solution and security guarantee mechanism of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have not been resolved. The ceasefire agreement is easily broken by sudden military action and political changes.
Files
Good points mentioned. I only disagree with those 100% for "2-3 months". It could be anything else from 1 hour to eternity as well, and with similar probability.
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New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
Why do you think you're right?
1.Moldova faces high risks. The Russian army is stockpiling weapons and conducting military in the Transnistria region. Moldova’s withdrawal from the CIS mechanism and its pursuit of EU membership has triggered Russia’s pressure through military infiltration and energy supply cuts. At present, Russia’s invasion of Moldova requires a breakthrough in the deadlock on the Ukrainian battlefield.
https://www.163.com/dy/article/JS7A9OI90556BSD6.html
2.Armenia faces low risk. Armenia has seen its relations with Russia deteriorate sharply, while Armenia is steps to withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union. Russia has already withdrawn its troops from Armenia and is more likely intervene diplomatic rather than military means.
https://www.icc.org.cn/publications/internationaloberservation/2334.html
3.Georgia:There are local risks. As early as 2008, Georgia and Russia clashed, and Abkhazia and South Ossetia eventually became independent and were recognized by Russia. After the Ukrainian crisis broke out, Georgia severed diplomatic relations with Russia and withdrew from the CIS. At present, the possibility of a full-scale Russian invasion is low.
https://www.icc.org.cn/publications/internationaloberservation/2334.html
4.Kazakhstan faces low risk, is highly sensitive about its territorial integrity, and Russia’s influence in Central Asia is waning. The Kremlin has neither the money nor the ideology to exert control over Kazakhstan.
https://www.163.com/dy/article/JS7A9OI90556BSD6.html
Why might you be wrong?
1.The Break through in the Russian-Ukrainian war may fuel Russia’s ambition to expand to other regions;
2. The accession of Moldova and Georgia to the RU may trigger conflicts.