RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 04:53AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
No	100%	98%	+2%	+0%

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 04:54AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	11%	-11%	-2%
No	100%	89%	+11%	+2%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 04:56AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	7%	-7%	+0%
No	100%	93%	+7%	+0%

What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 04:59AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $21.0 billion	20%	21%	-1%	+2%
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion	20%	43%	-23%	+5%
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion	20%	14%	+6%	+1%
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion	20%	9%	+11%	+0%
More than or equal to $25.0 billion	20%	13%	+7%	-8%

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 04:59AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	36%	-36%	+0%
No	100%	64%	+36%	+0%

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	47%	+53%	+1%
No	0%	53%	-53%	-1%

Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 05:05AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	46%	+54%	-2%
No	0%	54%	-54%	+2%

Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 05:05AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	63%	+37%	+0%
No	0%	37%	-37%	+0%

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 05:06AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	10%	-10%	+0%
No	100%	90%	+10%	+0%

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 05:07AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

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