Forecasted Questions
Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 21, 2026 03:11PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Jan 21, 2026 03:11PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 21, 2026 03:11PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Jan 21, 2026 03:11PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |
Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 21, 2026 03:12PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Jan 21, 2026 03:12PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 4% | -3% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 96% | +3% | +1% |
Will the United Nations Security Council adopt a resolution related to the conflict in Sudan by 1 May 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 02, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
May 02, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 02, 2026 10:27PM UTC
(2 hours ago)
Feb 02, 2026 10:27PM UTC
(2 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 44% | +6% | +0% |
| No | 50% | 56% | -6% | +0% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 02, 2026 10:27PM UTC
(2 hours ago)
Feb 02, 2026 10:27PM UTC
(2 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 7% | -4% | 0% |
| No | 97% | 93% | +4% | 0% |