RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 04:44AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026	Dec 23, 2025	1%	-1%	-2%
No	100%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026	Dec 23, 2025	99%	+1%	+2%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 04:45AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	3%	6%	-3%	+0%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
Kazakhstan	0%	1%	-1%	0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 04:46AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026	Dec 23, 2025	1%	-1%	-1%
No	100%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026	Dec 23, 2025	99%	+1%	+1%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 04:47AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	17%	-17%	-1%
No	100%	83%	+17%	+1%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 04:48AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	0%	4%	-4%	-1%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 04:48AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026	Dec 23, 2025	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026	Dec 23, 2025	99%	+1%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 04:49AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026	Dec 23, 2025	2%	-2%	+0%
No	100%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026	Dec 23, 2025	98%	+2%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 04:50AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2027	Feb 23, 2026	6%	-6%	+1%
No	100%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2027	Feb 23, 2026	94%	+6%	-1%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 04:52AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	3%	-3%	-3%
No	100%	97%	+3%	+3%

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 04:53AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
19	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
18	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
17	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
16 or fewer	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

grainmummy

About: