Current weather patterns have indicated an active hurricane season.
0.428174
Relative Brier Score
9
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Aug 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 1
26%
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
58%
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
16%
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Strong hurricanes weaken by landfall in the U.S.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Hostilities have ceased.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There's a new security incident.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 250
8%
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
8%
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
38%
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
46%
More than or equal to 550
Why do you think you're right?
The trend has been headed up with 535 victims in July. Reporting is the biggest hindrance to accurate reporting and that becomes better with awareness.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Summer break?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-11%)
Yes
99%
(+11%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The AI Action Plan indicates no intention for substantive regulation of AI models. We may see regulation on the margins of niche issues but nothing substantive.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If there is a flurry of state-level legislation, AI companies may invite federal legislation that pre-empts those bills. A bargain may be to create a low baseline of regulation in exchange for pre-emption.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 2.3%
14%
More than or equal to 2.3% but less than 2.6%
32%
More than or equal to 2.6% but less than 2.9%
40%
More than or equal to 2.9% but less than 3.2%
14%
More than or equal to 3.2%
Why do you think you're right?
Tariffs impact and summer spending will continue to drive inflation.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Large changes driven by slowdown of economy and poor job numbers
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
68%
Yes
32%
No
Why do you think you're right?
NVIDIA's market cap is boosted by the AI bubble.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
With the trade war and the White House's potential withdrawal of the CHIPS Act, it is likely that NVIDIA's market cap is negatively impacted.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Neither country has indicated any intention of engaging in hostilities.
Why might you be wrong?
inadvertent security skirmishes