lzhang

There was a period of over two years between the start of negotiations and formal opening of the Djibouti Army Support Base. Despite speculation, there are not yet confirmations that formal negotiations have begun in Bata or Libreville. 

https://web.archive.org/web/20170518023041/http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2015/05/150509084913175.html

In addition, although the PRC has economic interests in Africa, its primary military focus in on Taiwan. The PLA is also plagued with internal corruption issues. It seems unlikely that they are in a position to expand their presence in Africa.

Updating to reflect the latest weather trends - there are no active storms in the North Atlantic right now.

Huawei has not expressed interest in joining O-RAN, and with the Chinese government's current preference for developing home-grown technologies that are not reliant on Western inputs and networks, it seems unlikely that the company will push to join before October 1. 

There has already been one major hurricane this season.

It takes a few days to a week for a hurricane to develop from a tropical depression. Right now, there is only one disturbance in West Africa with a +60% chance of becoming a cyclone i 7 days. In the Atlantic, the ratio of category 1 vs. category 3 hurricanes is greater than 2:1, so the odds of this disturbance becoming a category 3 hurricane is small, less than 1 in 5. 

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/tropical

According to the CDC, as of September 9,  there were 1454 confirmed cases of measles in the United States. One month earlier, there were 1,356 cases https://www.aha.org/news/headline/2025-08-18-texas-declares-its-measles-outbreak-over

The World Bank estimates that one measles patient can spread the disease to ten unvaccinated close contacts. The U.S. has approximately a 90% vaccine coverage rate for measles, with some counties having a lower coverage rate. 

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/measles

I based my estimates on this data and a rough estimate of the transmission rate.

Recent hostilities between national military and law enforcement forces of India and Pakistan have been under 100 casualties. Given the desire to maintain the ceasefire, especially as India has other geopolitical priorities at the moment, it appears unlikely that either country would prefer to escalate during this time. The largest annual pilgrimage in Kashmir has concluded: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/07/08/hindu-pilgrimage-kashmir-pahalgam-amarnath-yatra/

According to the Reuters article, violence tends to break out around high profile visits to Kashmir. Based on my research, there does not appear to be any high profile visits scheduled in the rest of the month. 

With approximately 28,000 troops stationed in South Korea, a withdraw of more than 4,500 troops would be a significant change, and the last time such a change happened was in 2004 when President Bush pulled troops to deploy to Iraq.

Despite current tensions in the U.S.-South Korea economic and trade relationship, the broader security situation in the Indo-Pacific has not changed and will not change in the next three weeks.