Confirmed previous forecast
0.667555
Relative Brier Score
26
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 2 | 28 | 26 | 28 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 2 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The case for rapid development of AGI is based on the expansion of current transformer-based LLM technology. The argument that AGI is possible is because there is no limit to increases in computing power, and as computing power increases, human-like intelligence is inevitable. However, LLMs still lack true reasoning, and scaling up and improving LLMs is unlikely to lead to AGI in less than a year.
https://ml-site.cdn-apple.com/papers/the-illusion-of-thinking.pdf
In addition, different countries use the term AGI differently and have different concepts of what AGI means. Individuals in the PRC rarely discuss achieving AGI and winning the AI "Race" as a goal of its own. Instead, the focus is on self-reliance and in building AI applications. It is unlikely that this will change as early as 2026.
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Why might you be wrong?
Government priorities and government incentives change. It is possible that the PRC (or another government) decides to prioritize AGI and declare its achievement quickly.
Researchers may make another surprise breakthrough in another path to AGI, such as a brain-inspired approach.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There was a period of over two years between the start of negotiations and formal opening of the Djibouti Army Support Base. Despite speculation, there are not yet confirmations that formal negotiations have begun in Bata or Libreville.
In addition, although the PRC has economic interests in Africa, its primary military focus in on Taiwan. The PLA is also plagued with internal corruption issues. It seems unlikely that they are in a position to expand their presence in Africa.
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Why might you be wrong?
Unlike the Djbouti base, there are existing deepwater ports in Africa that could be converted or that could be dual-use. This could speed up the timeframe between negotiations and base opening.
The PRC has explicitly defined a goal as "establishing a world-class army" and may interpret that to include more overseas basing: https://jamestown.org/program/pla-declares-world-class-ambitions-with-strongest-army-benchmark/
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Good idea to look at the time the process took for Djibouti, @lzhang ! As for our question base under construction would still mean a resolution as yes, I think we should look at the time between reports of negotiations and reports of construction start.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
6%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
20%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
67%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+29%)
Less than or equal to 1
0%
(-29%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Updating to reflect the latest weather trends - there are no active storms in the North Atlantic right now.
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Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files