Attacking a US or US-Ally satellite could constitute an act of war, which creates a significant reasoning barrier to overcome for a country or organization to do this. If this happened to a NATO ally, it could trigger an Article V response. Furthermore, I would expect permanently disabling a satellites to take place after the initiation of a broader military conflict, so the likelihood of a war with a close US Ally that operates satellites or the US beginning before January 2027 should also be considered.
-0.224221
Relative Brier Score
210
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 210 | 210 | 210 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 91 | 91 | 91 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 41 | 41 | 41 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
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Top Forecaster - Oct 2025
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Taiwan being specifically named as a country that could cause the question to be resolved as 'Yes" raises the likelihood of this taking place. As opposed to many other cases where disabling a satellite would take place as part of a broader war, it could be possible that China could disable a Taiwanese satellite to antagonize them.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Since 2015, the index has raised 8-10 points each year. Developing economic conditions and the effects of tariffs don't seem to favor increased affordability of housing in the next several years, so it is likely that the index will rise at this rate (if not higher) over the next two years.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is possibly that policies will be passed to reduce rising housing costs.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating because of the approaching end of the month. VERY low chance of this taking place in he next several days.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There is a large meeting of high-ranking military personnel scheduled early last week. This could be a topic discussed there.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1
0%
(0%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
(-5%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
100%
(+5%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Number of cases are at 1514 as of September 24th, and cases are unlikely to surpass 1649 by the end of the month.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There has been a recent uptick in cases, which could indicate that numbers could continue to rise significantly.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The referenced increase in awarded doctorates in microbiology and immunology is marginal, and rates of these awarded doctorates are actually lower now than they were between 2013-2015.
Since 2016, the number of degrees awarded in these areas have stayed relatively consistent at ~1000 per year. This probably partially reflects the capacity of training institutions to generate doctorates in these disciplines, so any increased interest in pursuing these disciplines is not likely to be reflected (at least immediately) in the number of degrees, until training and funding institutions can build increased training capacity.
Why might you be wrong?
It is possible that training institutions built extra capacity to train immunologists and microbiologists in partial response to the COVID pandemic. Any result of those efforts would display a lag due to the amount of time required to earn a PhD, and this might not have been visible until 2025 or 2026. This could drive the amount of awarded doctorates up.