Confirmed previous forecast
-0.224221
Relative Brier Score
247
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 19 | 37 | 247 | 247 | 247 |
| Comments | 3 | 3 | 94 | 94 | 94 |
| Questions Forecasted | 19 | 19 | 42 | 42 | 42 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
20%
(0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
80%
(0%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
10%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
(0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
20%
(0%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
60%
(0%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
20%
(0%)
€30 billion or more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-35%)
Yes
85%
(+35%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
0%
(0%)
30 days
0%
(0%)
31-60 days
3%
(0%)
61-90 days
97%
(0%)
91 days or more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1%
(-3%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99%
(+3%)
Not before 2026