Confirmed previous forecast
1.107897
Relative Brier Score
19
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 19 | 19 | 21 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Less than 250
2%
(0%)
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
10%
(0%)
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
19%
(0%)
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
64%
(0%)
More than or equal to 550
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
20%
(0%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
40%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
31%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jun 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-35%)
Yes
85%
(+35%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Andrew Cuomo likely won’t win in five rounds or fewer due to the structure of ranked-choice voting (RCV) and the dynamics of the current race. His initial support is around 35–38%, far below the 50% majority required to win outright in early rounds. With at least 10 candidates in the race, votes from eliminated lower-tier candidates will be redistributed — and many of those second- and third-choice preferences are expected to favor progressive challengers like Zohran Mamdani
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Adjusting my previous forecast after reevaluating the question and measuring at "five rounds or fewer", which is very unlikely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Based on current polling and historical ranked-choice voting (RCV) patterns in NYC, it is unlikely that Andrew Cuomo will win the Democratic mayoral primary in five rounds or fewer. While he holds a narrow first-choice lead (~35–38%), simulations show challenger Zohran Mamdani gaining ground as lower-ranked candidates are eliminated, with most forecasts projecting a Mamdani win by round 7 or 8. In the 2021 mayoral primary, a similarly crowded field resulted in a 7-round decision, suggesting that without a majority in early rounds, Cuomo is unlikely to secure victory early. Overall, statistical modeling favors a longer contest, with a Cuomo win in ≤5 rounds considered improbable.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Polls may underrepresent Cuomo’s true support, especially among older or less vocal voters who are more likely to participate and rank him consistently across ballots. Second, RCV outcomes are notoriously difficult to predict—if multiple mid-tier candidates are ideologically closer to Cuomo, their supporters may rank him second or third, pushing him over the 50% threshold earlier than expected. Additionally, late-breaking events, strong ground game efforts, or strategic ranking by voters aiming to block Mamdani could all shift the redistribution pattern in Cuomo’s favor. Lastly, polling errors, turnout surprises, or ballot exhaustion could skew final outcomes unpredictably.
Files