RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025?	0.016881
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many measles cases in the U.S. will be reported by the CDC between 1 January 2025 and 30 September 2025?	-0.104127
Sep 06, 2025 12:56AM UTC	How many global victims of data-leaking ransomware will there be in August 2025, according to Data Breaches Digest?	0.100476
Aug 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC	Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025?	0.170964
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025?	0.876496
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will the U.S. national average gas price be equal to or above $3.600 for July 2025?	0.018439
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025?	0.003204
Jul 24, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registered cars in the EU exceed 20% by the second quarter of 2025?	0.025564
Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM UTC	What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?	0.552499
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?	0.043017

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