Confirmed previous forecast
1.419533
Relative Brier Score
22
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 20 | 19 | 22 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Quickfire Forecasts,
Emerging Technology,
Artificial Intelligence
Most Active Topics:
Emerging Tech - AI
New Prediction
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Less than 250
2%
(0%)
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
10%
(0%)
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
19%
(0%)
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
64%
(0%)
More than or equal to 550
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
20%
(0%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
40%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
31%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jun 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files