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Relative Brier Score
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Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Russia-Europe
New Prediction
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Without US support behind the initiative, I believe it is highly improbable that the Coalition of the Willing will deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025. The UK government has stated it will not deploy troops without US security guarantees. Despite Trump’s earlier claim this year that he will "always be with the British," such support is unlikely to materialise. Notably, the UK is a co-lead of the initiative. For me, the Coalition of the Willing is more of symbolic, and arguably performative gesture, rather than a concrete plan. Furthermore, troop deployment is contingent on a peace deal, and there is currently no indication that one is on the horizon.
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Why might you be wrong?
- Major developments in peace negotiations
- Major shift in US policy
- Breaking of the nuclear taboo
- Increase in domestic support in member countries
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