Lowering with time.
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Relative Brier Score
19
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 49 | 348 | 19 | 2687 |
| Comments | 5 | 27 | 34 | 10 | 1455 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 32 | 55 | 16 | 220 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 3 | 24 | 2 | 195 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
31%
(-4%)
Yes
Jan 18, 2025 to Jul 18, 2025
69%
(+4%)
No
Jan 18, 2025 to Jul 18, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Lack of knowledge about the internal politics of many African countries.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
19%
(-2%)
Yes
81%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing a bit.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
/
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
1%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-1%)
Moldova
1%
(-1%)
Armenia
6%
(-2%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing a bit for Georgia and Moldova,
- for Georgia: the government isn't as under pressure as I assumed
- for Moldova: Trump's inauguration starts the timer if it hasn't already done so with this election
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Georgia may become an issue after all.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
31%
(-4%)
Yes
Jan 13, 2025 to Jan 13, 2026
69%
(+4%)
No
Jan 13, 2025 to Jan 13, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Moderating my forecast a bit.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Considering the problem to get the necessary chips into China.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 8, 2025 to Jul 8, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Jan 8, 2025 to Jul 8, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 8, 2025 to Jul 8, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Jan 8, 2025 to Jul 8, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Getting closer again.
Why might you be wrong?
Bad numbers for Apple, good numbers for Nvidia.