18th
Accuracy Rank

sebawi

Sebastian Witteler
About:
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-0.165758

Relative Brier Score

317

Forecasts

15

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 14 25 352 36 2704
Comments 8 14 43 19 1464
Questions Forecasted 14 23 58 25 223
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 2 26 4 197
 Definitions
New Prediction
sebawi
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
sebawi
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (-1%)
Yes
Feb 3, 2025 to Aug 3, 2025
100% (+1%)
No
Feb 3, 2025 to Aug 3, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Adjusting slightly.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

/

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

As other forecasters have already highlighted:  brain-computer interfaces are still in very early development. Even if there are first-in-human clinical trials, this does not mean we are close to a market approval.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Reduction in FDA standards and acceleration of innovation & development in this space.

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
Starting out, chemical weapons are used "regularly" as other forecasters have highlighted.
Files
Why might you be wrong?

Increases in conflict due to changing geopolitical environment, i.e., US withdrawal from the world.

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Full FDA approval is a very high bar to take.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Acceleration in R&D and changes to the regulatory requirements could make this happen by 2030.

Files
New Prediction
sebawi
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Feb 2, 2025 to Aug 2, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Feb 2, 2025 to Aug 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
sebawi
made their 13th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Feb 2, 2025 to Feb 2, 2026
95% (0%)
No
Feb 2, 2025 to Feb 2, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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