Confirmed previous forecast
-0.165758
Relative Brier Score
317
Forecasts
15
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 14 | 25 | 352 | 36 | 2704 |
Comments | 8 | 14 | 43 | 19 | 1464 |
Questions Forecasted | 14 | 23 | 58 | 25 | 223 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 2 | 26 | 4 | 197 |
Definitions |

New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Feb 3, 2025 to Aug 3, 2025
100%
(+1%)
No
Feb 3, 2025 to Aug 3, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting slightly.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
/
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
As other forecasters have already highlighted: brain-computer interfaces are still in very early development. Even if there are first-in-human clinical trials, this does not mean we are close to a market approval.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Reduction in FDA standards and acceleration of innovation & development in this space.
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Chemical
5%
Biological
3%
Radiological
2%
Nuclear
Why do you think you're right?
Starting out, chemical weapons are used "regularly" as other forecasters have highlighted.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Increases in conflict due to changing geopolitical environment, i.e., US withdrawal from the world.
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Full FDA approval is a very high bar to take.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Acceleration in R&D and changes to the regulatory requirements could make this happen by 2030.
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 2, 2025 to Aug 2, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Feb 2, 2025 to Aug 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Argentina
19%
(0%)
Bolivia
10%
(0%)
Ecuador
Confirmed previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 2, 2025 to Feb 2, 2026
95%
(0%)
No
Feb 2, 2025 to Feb 2, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files