Forecasted Questions
Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 07:30PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 07:30PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 17% | -7% | -13% |
| No | 90% | 83% | +7% | +13% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 07:36PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 07:36PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 7% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 93% | +2% | +0% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 07:36PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 07:36PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 50% | 68% | -18% | +2% |
| 30 days | 0% | 5% | -5% | +0% |
| 31-60 days | 20% | 5% | +15% | +0% |
| 61-90 days | 18% | 5% | +13% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 12% | 16% | -4% | -1% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts
19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 07:37PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 07:37PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026 | Dec 27, 2025 | 1% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 100% | Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026 | Dec 27, 2025 | 99% | +1% | +1% |
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 07:55PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 07:55PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 3% | -3% | +2% |
| No | 100% | 97% | +3% | -2% |
Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 08:48PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 12, 2025 08:48PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 95% | 93% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 5% | 7% | -2% | +0% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 08:58PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 12, 2025 08:58PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Not before 2026 | 100% | 98% | +2% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 09:07PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 12, 2025 09:07PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Dec 12, 2025 to Jun 12, 2026 | Jan 12, 2026 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Dec 12, 2025 to Jun 12, 2026 | Jan 12, 2026 | 100% | +0% | +0% |