thsavage

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2025 Season Stats

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Relative Brier Score

103

Forecasts

2

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 13 26 361 103 1593
Comments 13 26 134 103 519
Questions Forecasted 13 18 47 21 227
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 1 9 2 81
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
thsavage made their 14th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
7% (0%)
Moldova
2% (0%)
Armenia
4% (0%)
Georgia
1% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?

Confirming previous forecast, I'm right around the crowd 

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Why might you be wrong?

Long time horizon 

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New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
thsavage made their 14th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7% (0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2025 to Apr 29, 2026
93% (0%)
No
Apr 29, 2025 to Apr 29, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Confirming previous forecast/remaining at crowd consensus

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Why might you be wrong?

A full year for this to happen

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Remaining a bit below the crowd, my initial reasoning remains the same

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Why might you be wrong?

Very long time horizon on this one 

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New Prediction
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
thsavage made their 23rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
4% (-1%)
Yes
96% (+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

Still at #3 with $2.65 T (behind Apple at $3.16 T and Microsoft at $2.91 T) with only about a month to go. I'm going to start decreasing about 1% per week now. 

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Why might you be wrong?

Still plenty of time for something to happen that shocks the stock market and moves things around enough for this to resolve positively 

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New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
thsavage made their 8th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Confirming previous forecast, no signals otherwise

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Why might you be wrong?

Opacity of N Korea

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New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
thsavage made their 20th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Confirming previous forecast. I think the situation has not changed much 

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Why might you be wrong?

Still could technically happen 

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Confirming previous forecast

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Why might you be wrong?

Definitely still within the realm of possibility 

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New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
thsavage made their 13th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Estonia
2% (0%)
Latvia
2% (0%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?

Confirming previous forecast

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Why might you be wrong?

Still 2 years to go 

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Adjusting down slightly with the crowd

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Why might you be wrong?

General economic chaos brought about by US tariffs could make this more likely

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Passage of time and crowd forecast. No real signals otherwise. 

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Why might you be wrong?

Still 5 months to go

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