Confirming previous forecast/remaining at crowd consensus
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
103
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 13 | 26 | 361 | 103 | 1593 |
Comments | 13 | 26 | 134 | 103 | 519 |
Questions Forecasted | 13 | 18 | 47 | 21 | 227 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 81 |
Definitions |

New Prediction

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2025 to Apr 29, 2026
93%
(0%)
No
Apr 29, 2025 to Apr 29, 2026

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-1%)
Yes
96%
(+1%)
No

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2026
91%
(0%)
No
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2026

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Estonia
2%
(0%)
Latvia
2%
(0%)
Lithuania

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-1%)
Yes
95%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting down slightly with the crowd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
General economic chaos brought about by US tariffs could make this more likely
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time and crowd forecast. No real signals otherwise.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Still 5 months to go
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast, I'm right around the crowd
Why might you be wrong?
Long time horizon