Confirming previous forecast, I am right at the crowd
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Relative Brier Score
114
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 6 | 21 | 357 | 114 | 1604 |
| Comments | 6 | 21 | 145 | 114 | 530 |
| Questions Forecasted | 6 | 15 | 47 | 21 | 227 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 81 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
May 21, 2025 to Nov 21, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
May 21, 2025 to Nov 21, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Opacity of N Korea's decision-making
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some token attempt to do this in the next month or so
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
May 21, 2025 to Nov 21, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
May 21, 2025 to Nov 21, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast, no real change here
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Could still happen
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Tracking down with the crowd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I don't know much about the economy or geopolitics of Egypt
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
(0%)
Yes
May 21, 2025 to Nov 21, 2026
91%
(0%)
No
May 21, 2025 to Nov 21, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This is definitely still a possibility, especially for an 18-month time horizon
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-2%)
Yes
93%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Dropping due to crowd forecast and passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I think the tariffs are creating more uncertainty around a lot of things, especially on such a long time horizon
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-1%)
Yes
May 8, 2025 to Nov 8, 2025
96%
(+1%)
No
May 8, 2025 to Nov 8, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing slightly due to crowd forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Opacity of N Korean decision-making
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast, no change. I'm going to give it another month of two before going to 0
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Leaving 1% just in case
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast
Why might you be wrong?
Events with p < 0.005