thsavage

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Relative Brier Score

114

Forecasts

2

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 6 21 357 114 1604
Comments 6 21 145 114 530
Questions Forecasted 6 15 47 21 227
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 9 2 81
 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Confirming previous forecast

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Events with p < 0.005

Files
New Prediction
thsavage
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
May 21, 2025 to Nov 21, 2025
98% (0%)
No
May 21, 2025 to Nov 21, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Confirming previous forecast, I am right at the crowd

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Opacity of N Korea's decision-making 

Files
New Prediction
thsavage
made their 14th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes
100% (0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

Confirming previous forecast

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Some token attempt to do this in the next month or so

Files
New Prediction
thsavage
made their 12th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
May 21, 2025 to Nov 21, 2025
98% (0%)
No
May 21, 2025 to Nov 21, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Confirming previous forecast, no real change here 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Could still happen

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Tracking down with the crowd 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

I don't know much about the economy or geopolitics of Egypt

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Confirming previous forecast

Files
Why might you be wrong?

This is definitely still a possibility, especially for an 18-month time horizon 

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Dropping due to crowd forecast and passage of time

Files
Why might you be wrong?

I think the tariffs are creating more uncertainty around a lot of things, especially on such a long time horizon 

Files
New Prediction
thsavage
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4% (-1%)
Yes
May 8, 2025 to Nov 8, 2025
96% (+1%)
No
May 8, 2025 to Nov 8, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Reducing slightly due to crowd forecast

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Opacity of N Korean decision-making 

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Confirming previous forecast, no change. I'm going to give it another month of two before going to 0 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Leaving 1% just in case 

Files
New Badge
thsavage
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

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