thsavage

About:
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No Scores Yet

Relative Brier Score

103

Forecasts

2

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 13 26 361 103 1593
Comments 13 26 134 103 519
Questions Forecasted 13 18 47 21 227
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 1 9 2 81
 Definitions
New Prediction
thsavage
made their 14th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
7% (0%)
Moldova
2% (0%)
Armenia
4% (0%)
Georgia
1% (0%)
Kazakhstan
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New Prediction
thsavage
made their 14th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7% (0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2025 to Apr 29, 2026
93% (0%)
No
Apr 29, 2025 to Apr 29, 2026
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New Prediction
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New Prediction
thsavage
made their 23rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4% (-1%)
Yes
96% (+1%)
No
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New Prediction
thsavage
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
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New Prediction
thsavage
made their 20th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
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New Prediction
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New Prediction
thsavage
made their 13th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Estonia
2% (0%)
Latvia
2% (0%)
Lithuania
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Adjusting down slightly with the crowd

Files
Why might you be wrong?

General economic chaos brought about by US tariffs could make this more likely

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Passage of time and crowd forecast. No real signals otherwise. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Still 5 months to go

Files
Files
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