Confirming previous forecast, no real changes here
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Relative Brier Score
29
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 22 | 309 | 29 | 1830 |
| Comments | 5 | 22 | 327 | 29 | 774 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 15 | 55 | 15 | 262 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 91 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Still more than a year to go
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast. I think Russia is still focused on Ukraine for now.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Long enough to go that there is plenty of time for something unexpected to happen
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast. I'm still going to wait a bit longer to go to zero, but this report from Reuters does not inspire confidence: "As AI enters the operating room, reports arise of botched surgeries and misidentified body parts."
"The device had already been on the market for about three years. Until then, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration had received unconfirmed reports of seven instances in which the device malfunctioned and another report of a patient injury. Since AI was added to the device, the FDA has received unconfirmed reports of at least 100 malfunctions and adverse events."
This report isn't about LLMs specifically, but it does mention them.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Not good visibility into what the FDA is currently doing
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating downward with the crowd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The offhand comment thing is still definitely possible in this timeframe
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Jan 2026
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jan 2026
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There aren't really currently any incentives for any of these countries to do this (in fact the opposite), so I don't see this happening. This doesn't really seem to be a thing China or Russia does. The US and EU want to maintain good relations with these countries.
Short time horizon as well
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Still 5 months to go and you never really know what Trump is gonna do
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Current trend seems to be pretty strongly in the opposite direction, and the timeline now is probably too short anyway
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Small possibility of Gaza or Venezuela or similar
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast, nothing to make me change my mind currently
Why might you be wrong?
Inherent uncertainty here, especially forecasting out til 2030