Forecasted Questions
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 11:11PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 11:11PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2027 | Feb 28, 2026 | 5% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 96% | Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2027 | Feb 28, 2026 | 95% | +1% | +0% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 01:32AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 01:32AM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 97% | +1% | +0% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 01:39AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 01:39AM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Not before 2026 | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 06:07AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Dec 09, 2025 06:07AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 06:14AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Dec 09, 2025 06:14AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 06:29AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Dec 09, 2025 06:29AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 5% | -2% | +2% |
| No | 97% | 95% | +2% | -2% |
Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 02:52AM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 13, 2025 02:52AM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts
21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 02:54AM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 13, 2025 02:54AM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 4% | 6% | -2% | +0% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts
20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 03:01AM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 13, 2025 03:01AM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 3% | -2% | 0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 2% | -1% | 0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 3% | -2% | 0% |