RAND Forecasting Initiative

How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2025 05:55AM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 4,499	5%	5%	+0%	-4%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive	16%	12%	+4%	+0%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive	75%	76%	-1%	+3%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive	4%	6%	-2%	+1%
More than or equal to 6,000	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 07:30AM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	7%	-4%	+0%
No	97%	93%	+4%	+0%

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 07:33AM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 08:09PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	3%	3%	+0%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	96%	96%	+0%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
28 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 08:40PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 29, 2025 to May 29, 2026	Dec 29, 2025	0%	+1%	-1%
No	99%	Nov 29, 2025 to May 29, 2026	Dec 29, 2025	100%	-1%	+1%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 08:49PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 29, 2025 to May 29, 2026	Dec 29, 2025	1%	+0%	-1%
No	99%	Nov 29, 2025 to May 29, 2026	Dec 29, 2025	99%	+0%	+1%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 09:00PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 29, 2025 to May 29, 2026	Dec 29, 2025	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 29, 2025 to May 29, 2026	Dec 29, 2025	99%	+0%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 10:52PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	1%	+1%	-1%
No	98%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	99%	-1%	+1%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 11:00PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	7%	-4%	+0%
No	97%	93%	+4%	+0%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 11:06PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	65%	68%	-3%	+0%
30 days	2%	5%	-3%	+0%
31-60 days	5%	5%	+0%	+0%
61-90 days	4%	5%	-1%	+0%
91 days or more	24%	16%	+8%	+1%

thsavage

About: