Comment deleted on Nov 12, 2024 07:05PM UTC
0.135328
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Most Active Topics:
Emerging Technology,
Artificial Intelligence,
Geopolitical Security
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Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Microsoft gains little by completely shutting down MSR Asia. They recently hired interns, which they wouldn't do if they were planning on closing within 2 months. Closing MSR Asia would probably be beneficial from a national security perspective, so we should not rule it out.
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This forecast expired on Dec 11, 2024 10:41PM
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Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025
99%
No
Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025
I think it is very unlikely China blockades Taiwan, but still possible. The confusion of a new administration does give them a window of opportunity, but I doubt that they will move so quickly.
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Nvidia may be able to capture much of the AI boom.