Wooster

About:

Manager @ Cultivate Labs, bringing crowd forecasting to clients in finance, government, and the corporate world. Background in hedge fund investing at one of the big Canadian pension plans.

You can find me forecasting as Wooster on RANGE and Ziewert on GJO, the other public forecasting platforms powered by Cultivate Labs:

https://www.rangeforecasting.org/forecaster/Wooster
https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/Ziewert

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Forecasted Questions
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Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 07, 2025 06:54PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 12% 4%
No 88% 96%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 21, 2025 06:38PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 1%
No 95% 99%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 28, 2025 08:38PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 2%
No 98% 98%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 28, 2025 08:45PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 2% 3%
Latvia 2% 2%
Lithuania 1% 2%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 28, 2025 08:53PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 5%
No 95% 95%

Will Western Asia and North African intra-regional exports equal or exceed 24% of total exports in 2025 or 2026, according to UNCTAD data?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 28, 2025 08:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 37% 21%
No 63% 79%

Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 05, 2025 07:07PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 80% 63%
No 20% 37%

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jan 19, 2026 11:30PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 2%
No 96% 98%
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