Wooster

About:

Manager @ Cultivate Labs, bringing crowd forecasting to clients in finance, government, and the corporate world. Background in hedge fund investing at one of the big Canadian pension plans.

You can find me forecasting as Wooster on RANGE and Ziewert on GJO, the other public forecasting platforms powered by Cultivate Labs:

https://www.rangeforecasting.org/forecaster/Wooster
https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/Ziewert

Top Forecaster of the Month - Dec 2023

Top Forecaster of the Month - Nov 2023

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Forecasted Questions

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2025 06:47PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	3%	+5%	+1%
No	92%	97%	-5%	-1%

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2025 06:54PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	12%	10%	+2%	-3%
No	88%	90%	-2%	+3%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2025 06:38PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	3%	+2%	-4%
No	95%	97%	-2%	+4%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 08:38PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+0%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 08:43PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	3%	2%	+1%	+0%
Not before 2026	97%	98%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 08:45PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
Latvia	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	3%	-2%	+0%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 08:45PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 08:48PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026	Dec 28, 2025	0%	+5%	-1%
No	95%	Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026	Dec 28, 2025	100%	-5%	+1%

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 08:50PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 62%	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%	5%	4%	+1%	-1%
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%	95%	96%	-1%	+1%
More than or equal to 74%	0%	0%	+0%	0%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 08:53PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	7%	-2%	+0%
No	95%	93%	+2%	+0%