Confirmed previous forecast
0.019783
Relative Brier Score
63
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 14 | 76 | 63 | 508 |
| Comments | 1 | 9 | 48 | 46 | 182 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 14 | 28 | 24 | 72 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 55 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
12%
(0%)
30 days
5%
(0%)
31-60 days
5%
(0%)
61-90 days
48%
(0%)
91 days or more
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
37%
(-8%)
Yes
63%
(+8%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Lowering toward the crowd a bit as my hypothesis about more oil coming online hasn't materialized so far.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Could still happen!
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Happy to hold at 5%, again, primarily due to how much of a provocation this would be.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Major war breaking out?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
5%
(-9%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
95%
(+9%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Economies seem to be holding up well enough and there's very little time before the end of the year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I dunno, AI bubble pops tomorrow and somehow it ripples through the economy at a dramatic rate?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(+1%)
Yes
Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026
95%
(-1%)
No
Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Seems like the window for normalization is re-opening, though the next 6 months still seems unlikely. Before the end of Trump's term though? That seems much more plausible.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump's style seems to suit Middle Eastern politics well and could well accelerate normalization past what seems realistic.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Between Malaysia and Bosnia, it seems there's a pretty high chance of this happening. The EU's CBAM has created a pretty strong incentive and there could be a rush of smaller countries looking to create their own measures to avoid paying the EU.
Why might you be wrong?