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0
Forecasts
0
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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 167 | 0 | 631 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 150 | 0 | 306 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 67 | 0 | 193 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 48 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Dec 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
3%
(-12%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
97%
(+12%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
data correction
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
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Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-20%)
Yes
100%
(+20%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
no time left
Files
Why might you be wrong?
---
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+10%)
Less than 30 days
0%
(-10%)
30 days
0%
(0%)
31-60 days
0%
(0%)
61-90 days
0%
(0%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
ceasefire wont happen
Files
Why might you be wrong?
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Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(-1%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(+1%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
no time left
Files
Why might you be wrong?
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Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
inflation seems stable around 12%
Files
Why might you be wrong?
global market crash , black swans
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-7%)
Yes
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2027
99%
(+7%)
No
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
I believe the likelihood is low because of the ongoing peace negotiations. Moreover it requires the accumulation of three hypotheses:
(i) Russia would need to want to carry out an attack with kinetic effect, which is not obvious, as they might fear provoking NATO's wrath too much;
(ii) Russia would need to succeed in the cyberattack with regard to achieving a kinetic effect;
(iii) It would need to be proven or acknowledged that the attack was directly ordered by the Russian government. As @Plataea479 has pointed out, there may be adverse incentivas related to insurance contracts.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Peace negotiations may fail and tensions may rise
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(+2%)
Yes
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
96%
(-2%)
No
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Going a bit higher due to the new nuclear-powered submarines
Files
Why might you be wrong?
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Files
Why do you think you're right?
no time left
Why might you be wrong?
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