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Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 41 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Jan 31, 2026 07:04PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
65%
(0%)
No
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 1, 2026 01:55AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(-45%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
65%
(+45%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Somthing going on these days https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/nov/30/china-donald-trump-xi-jinping-taiwan-trade
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Why might you be wrong?
The crowd might be correct ~ 0 probability
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 1, 2025 02:33AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
80%
Yes
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
20%
No
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
I believe the situation changed a bit recently. I had voted 0% for a long time, but there has been some propaganda news in China. super interesting so i would give a super probability here. Probably other team members could support me.
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Why might you be wrong?
So far there is no actual news related to the action.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Zero given the deadline is apporaching
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Why might you be wrong?
NA
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Why do you think you're right?
given the most updated data
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Why might you be wrong?
invalid data
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