I believe the situation changed a bit recently. I had voted 0% for a long time, but there has been some propaganda news in China. super interesting so i would give a super probability here. Probably other team members could support me.
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 11 | 10 | 40 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 24 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 1, 2025 02:33AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
80%
Yes
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
20%
No
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
So far there is no actual news related to the action.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Zero given the deadline is apporaching
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Why do you think you're right?
given the most updated data
Files
Why might you be wrong?
invalid data
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
There is no sign of it at all right before 1 July 2025
Files
Why might you be wrong?
You never know what unexpected situation would happen
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Somthing going on these days https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/nov/30/china-donald-trump-xi-jinping-taiwan-trade
Why might you be wrong?