120th
Accuracy Rank

gcahlik

About:

Former Investigative Analyst for a Federal agency, now working as a trade compliance specialist for a nonprofit research and development institute.

Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies graduate, MA International Relations, Russian and Eurasian studies concentration. University of Texas at San Antonio graduate, BA Economics, Political Science, minor in Russian

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2025 Season Stats

0.183479

Relative Brier Score

42

Forecasts

3

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 73 42 961
Comments 0 0 16 9 230
Questions Forecasted 0 0 37 25 191
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 3 3 135
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
gcahlik made their 5th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on May 7, 2025 03:40PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Apr 7, 2025 to Oct 7, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Apr 7, 2025 to Oct 7, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
gcahlik made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
2% (0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
gcahlik made their 5th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on May 7, 2025 03:40PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Apr 7, 2025 to Oct 7, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Apr 7, 2025 to Oct 7, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
gcahlik made their 4th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Jul 7, 2025 03:39PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Apr 7, 2025 to Oct 7, 2026
95% (0%)
No
Apr 7, 2025 to Oct 7, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
gcahlik made their 6th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
15% (0%)
Togo
25% (0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
gcahlik made their 13th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on May 7, 2025 03:39PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Apr 7, 2025 to Oct 7, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Apr 7, 2025 to Oct 7, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
gcahlik made their 7th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on May 7, 2025 03:39PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Apr 7, 2025 to Oct 7, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Apr 7, 2025 to Oct 7, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
gcahlik made their 11th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Estonia
0% (0%)
Latvia
0% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

minor downgrade adjustment

Files
Why might you be wrong?

just entering something here because it asks me to.

Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
gcahlik made their 10th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Moldova
0% (0%)
Armenia
0% (0%)
Georgia
0% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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