32nd
Accuracy Rank

MCowley

About:

West Australian engineering adjuster, and former publican.

Forecasting since 2018. Hypermind "Hall of Famer".

https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/MCowley

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? -0.000021
May 31, 2025 05:00PM UTC On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? 0.015634
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024? 0.001163
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? 0.00075
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024? -0.000008
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA? -0.000411
Dec 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? 0.1055
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM UTC For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%? 0.000036
Jul 01, 2024 04:01PM UTC Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024? -0.001255
Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024? 0.004673
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024? -0.00014
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador? 0.001424
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia? -0.001994
Jun 25, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela? 0.000202
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? -0.004975
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? -0.269114
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? -0.003264
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024? 0.009323
Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024) 0.00024
Apr 02, 2024 03:00PM UTC Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024? -0.000853
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