Confirmed previous forecast
-0.060873
Relative Brier Score
133
Forecasts
11
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 7 | 12 | 133 | 133 | 719 |
| Comments | 1 | 4 | 64 | 64 | 99 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 11 | 23 | 23 | 105 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 51 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
81%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
9%
(0%)
30 days
4%
(0%)
31-60 days
1%
(0%)
61-90 days
5%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 11, 2025 to Jun 11, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 11, 2025 to Jun 11, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 11, 2025 to Jun 11, 2027
98%
(0%)
No
Dec 11, 2025 to Jun 11, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
11%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
88%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Shift due to time, rounded down to zero
Why might you be wrong?
Christmas miracle perhaps?