Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 3 | 138 | 3 | 727 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 64 | 0 | 102 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 3 | 23 | 3 | 106 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 51 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I struggle to see how the CCCP would tolerate a sluggish growth moving forward.
Through sheer might of their economy or the opacity of their numbers believe 2026 will yield a average around the 5% mark and multiple quarters of 5%. Hence the simple 50-50.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Underlying problems in China (as listed) become impossible to overcome, paper-over or avoid.
More likely is a shift away from growth targets as a key metric to success, allowing for a slip in GDP growth to be acceptable.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
11%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
88%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-15%)
Yes
100%
(+15%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Update for time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Update for time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-32%)
Yes
100%
(+32%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Update for time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Update for time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(-1%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(+1%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Shift due to time, rounded down to zero
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Why might you be wrong?
Christmas miracle perhaps?
Files
Interesting. Maybe for Christmas.
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