Forecasted Questions
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
32 Forecasts
32 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 04:38PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 26, 2025 04:38PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Nov 26, 2025 to May 26, 2026 | Dec 26, 2025 | 2% | +0% | +1% |
| No | 98% | Nov 26, 2025 to May 26, 2026 | Dec 26, 2025 | 98% | +0% | -1% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts
29 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 04:38PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 26, 2025 04:38PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 7% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 90% | 93% | -3% | +0% |
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 04:38PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 26, 2025 04:38PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 10% | +0% | -5% |
| No | 90% | 90% | +0% | +5% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
46 Forecasts
46 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 04:39PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 26, 2025 04:39PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Nov 26, 2025 to May 26, 2026 | Dec 26, 2025 | 1% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 100% | Nov 26, 2025 to May 26, 2026 | Dec 26, 2025 | 99% | +1% | +1% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
74 Forecasts
74 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 04:39PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 26, 2025 04:39PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Nov 26, 2025 to May 26, 2026 | Dec 26, 2025 | 0% | +2% | -2% |
| No | 98% | Nov 26, 2025 to May 26, 2026 | Dec 26, 2025 | 100% | -2% | +2% |
Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts
19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 04:39PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 26, 2025 04:39PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 04:39PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 26, 2025 04:39PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Entity | 93% | 79% | +14% | +0% |
| Non-U.S. Entity | 80% | 55% | +25% | +0% |